Shadow Dance heads our ratings on 96 and looks the one to beat in this six-runner Class 4 over two miles at Southwell, with a 4 lb edge over Charging Thunder that is a narrow rather than decisive advantage. That gap is enough to make the case, and he is clear of the rest of the field on our figures. Charging Thunder is the chief danger, while Solar Pass and Vaguely Royal, both on 77, sit well back but could take advantage if the top two underperform. Confidence is low given how tight the top pair are, but Shadow Dance is the selection.