Showing tips for Thursday 22nd October. Today's are published each evening.
Going watch
- Clonmel: declared Good, 6mm of rain before the first — we are reading it as soft.
- A further 14mm is forecast during racing.
- Ffos Las: declared Good To Soft, 9mm of rain before the first — we are reading it as soft.
- A further 5mm is forecast during racing.
- Newmarket: declared Soft, 11mm of rain before the first — we are reading it as heavy.
Carlisle
PUSH THE LIMIT at 8/15, Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton, looks the one to be on. He drops in grade after running 5th in a Class 1, beaten 2L, drops to Class 4, wears headgear for the first time and comes from a yard in good heart at 25%.
The one worry is long absence.
The main danger is WATERY BORREN at 6/1 (in first-time headgear).
BEL AMIGO at 7/2, N. W. Alexander with Dominic Hislop taking off 8lb, gets the vote. He races off a mark 5lb below the 115 it won from back in April 2025 and is a 3 times-winner over this course.
The dangers are CABALLO DE GUERRA at 9/4 (went close off this mark) and WINDS OF WINTER at 13/2 (went close off this mark).
WALK ON QUEST at 6/1, Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore and Derek Fox, looks the one to be on. He knows how to win round here and comes from a yard in good heart at 25%.
The dangers are DARE TO SHOUT at 11/4 (a course winner) and SIR CARNEGIE at 11/4 (went close off this mark).
COVENTRY at 10/1, Lisa Harrison and Peter Kavanagh, is the one I keep coming back to. He has had 3 of his last 4 starts on the wrong trip, back to 20f today where he wins and his mark is 3lb lower for it and won last time out.
The one worry is run style against this track.
The dangers are LADY PHOEBE at 9/1 and SHOESHINE BOY at 20/1 (a course winner).
3 of these want to be on the pace, which usually means they go too quick and it falls to something coming from behind.
GETAWAY MASTER at 13/2, Micky Hammond and Brian Hughes, is the one I want to be with. He has already won around this track, gets a trip he has won over and has a telling booking — upgrade from a 8% rider to 16% on a horse out of form.
The one worry is run style against this track.
The dangers are MICKS JET at 18/1 and ROYAL RHYTHM at 7/1 (a course winner).
MIRABAD at 8/1, Dan Skelton and Harry Skelton, looks the one to be on. He makes his first start since a wind operation and comes from a yard in good heart at 25%.
The one worry is long absence.
The dangers are HAMLET'S NIGHT at 40/1 (went close off this mark) and BURDETT ROAD at 11/2.
GLORY AND HONOUR at 3/1, Sam England and Jonathan England, looks the most likely of these. He races off a mark 3lb below the 115 it won from back in June 2025, gets a trip he has won over and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The dangers are HELLO JUDGE at 9/4 (a course winner) and OLD GREGORIAN at 11/2 (well handicapped).
Little to separate them on form because most are unexposed, so it comes down to the yard and the booking.
CRYSTAL SPECTRE gets the vote at 13/8 for Dan Skelton, ridden by Harry Skelton. Dan Skelton is running at 25% over the past fortnight, and Harry Skelton is a 21% rider.
The dangers are MIDNIGHT JURY at 3/1 and JUNIOR MINISTER at 11/2.
Clonmel
WORLD AS ONE at 15/8, W. P. Mullins and Paul Townend, is the one I would side with. He was going well when coming down last time and has a telling booking — upgrade from a 9% rider to 25%.
3 of these want to be on the pace, which usually means they go too quick and it falls to something coming from behind.
ROMELLA at 25/1, Brendan Maurice Walsh and Mr H C Swan, makes most appeal. He races off a mark 3lb below the 85 it won from back in October 2025 and has a course win to his name.
The one worry is run style against this track.
PAHLAVI rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time off 91 and runs off 98 — up 7lb.
The main danger is VOLEZ VOUS at 16/1 (a course winner).
A tricky race on paper with little between them on our figures.
WICKED PLEASURE makes most appeal at 5/2 for Henry de Bromhead, whose yard is running at 19%.
RED ACRES GEORGIE heads the market but is passed over — 1 run on soft or heavy, never won, never placed — and today is soft.
The risk is RED ACRES GEORGIE, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 4.4 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
The dangers are RED ACRES GEORGIE at 5/4 and KATIE CAN'T COUNT at 4/1.
NIRISQUE at 17/2, Henry de Bromhead and Mike O'Connor, is the one I want to be with. He wears headgear for the first time and should be suited by the ground, placed twice from 2 on it.
The risk is CHEMDAWG, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 4.4 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
BOBBY KIROVA rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time off 92 and runs off 103 — up 11lb.
The dangers are CHEMDAWG at 14/1 and MARKET READY at 5/1 (staying on last time).
EMILY LOVE at 11/2, Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy, looks the one to be on. He wears headgear for the first time and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns, upgrade from a 10% rider to 17%.
The dangers are LITTLEBIGGIE at 25/1 (well handicapped) and SAYITFIRST at 50/1.
GRANGE WALK at 14/1, John Patrick Ryan and Daniel King, is the one I want to be with. He was staying on at the finish last time, handles the ground, with a win from 6 on it and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The one worry is yard out of form.
WOODSTREAM LAD rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time off 99 and runs off 107 — up 8lb.
The dangers are BANJAXED at 16/1 and CEROC at 3/1 (from a yard in form).
ROCCABAKER at 10/1, David Harry Kelly and Danny Gilligan, makes most appeal. He has a telling booking — upgrade from a 5% rider to 11% on a horse out of form.
MOUNT SHENSHAN rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time, and there is no comparable mark in this code to judge the rise.
The dangers are ONEFORTHEDITCH at 4/1 and ROCKSTOWN GIRL at 11/1 (in first-time headgear).
Ffos Las
A hard race to weigh up with most of these unexposed, so the yard and the booking count for more than the form book.
VRHELIGONNE gets the vote at 3/1 for Ben Pauling, ridden by Ben Jones. Ben Jones is a 16% rider, and the market makes it favourite.
The dangers are FAIRY PARK at 4/7 and FIREBALL FRENZY at 7/1.
GOLIATH FLIGHT at 40/1, Dan Skelton and Charlie Todd, is the one I would side with. He comes from a yard in good heart at 25%.
One to be careful with: none of these has won or been placed on this ground.
A tricky one to unpick — most of these have barely been seen, so the stable and the booking matter more than the figures.
TROJAN TALE gets the vote at 7/2 for Dan Horsford, ridden by Harry Cobden. Harry Cobden is a 21% rider, and the market makes it favourite.
The dangers are COMMON SENSE at 10/3 and THE WALK at 7/2.
EL GAVILAN at 3/1, Dan Skelton and Tristan Durrell, is the one I would be with. He has already won round this track 3 times and comes from a yard in good heart at 25%.
The one worry is long absence.
The dangers are IDEFIX DE CIERGUES at 9/1 and MOONSET at 14/1.
Little to separate them on form because most are unexposed, so it comes down to the yard and the booking.
WILLOW TIDE gets the vote at 13/8 for Fergal O'Brien, ridden by Liam Harrison. The market makes it favourite.
The dangers are POINTOFDIFFERENCE at 3/1 and JET BAY at 7/2.
BOULTYDOOLIN at 9/4, Rebecca Curtis and Ben Jones, is the one I want to be with. He won last time out.
made all to win on soft in March and comes back for the ground he wants
The one worry is long absence.
The main danger is LEGENDARY LUKE at 9/2 (from a yard in form).
LOVE ME at 10/1, Jo Davis and Gavin Sheehan, is the one I would be with. He drops in grade after running 3rd in a Class 4, beaten 2.5L, drops to Class 5 and was staying on at the finish last time.
The one worry is long absence.
The dangers are THE GREY MAN at 10/1 (a course winner) and RAP SOUL at 5/2.
JOKER DE MAI at 6/1, Clive Boultbee-Brooks and Richie McLernon, is the one I would side with. He has had 3 of his last 4 starts on the wrong trip, back to 16f today where he wins and his mark is 3lb lower for it, handles the ground, with a win from 4 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The one worry is weakened last time and long absence.
The dangers are JAIPALETEMPS at 7/2 (a course winner) and EXCELERO at 7/1 (won with plenty in hand).
Newmarket
Not much to go on here with these largely unexposed, so I am leaning on the yard and who is riding.
BYZANTINE gets the vote at 9/4 for George Boughey, ridden by Billy Loughnane. George Boughey is running at 24% over the past fortnight, and the market makes it favourite.
The dangers are MUNAJAD at 4/1 and SYDNEY CARTON at 4/1.
Little to separate them on form because most are unexposed, so it comes down to the yard and the booking.
RAISE AND SHINE gets the vote at 10/1 for David Menuisier, ridden by Sean Levey. David Menuisier is running at 21% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are HAPPY LOVE at 10/11 and IMPERIALISM at 5/1.
3 of these want to be on the pace, which usually means they go too quick and it falls to something coming from behind.
ASTEVERDI at 16/1, James Owen and Saffie Osborne, looks the pick of these. He has had his mark eased — 3 of the last 4 starts on the wrong ground, mark down 1lb, should be suited by the ground, placed 3 times from 4 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The one worry is weakened last time and long time without a win.
KIMEKO GLORY rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — 1 run on soft or heavy, never won, never placed — and today is heavy.
The dangers are BEARIN UP at 12/1 (a course winner) and TRONIDO at 50/1 (won with plenty in hand).
MYTHICAL GUEST at 8/1, George Margarson and Saffie Osborne, is the one I would side with. He knows how to win round here and was staying on at the finish last time.
The one worry is long time without a win.
The dangers are BEACH POINT at 6/1 (went close off this mark) and PRINCESS RASCAL at 20/1 (a course winner).
Non-runners: Triple Force.
ICE CUBE at 7/2, Richard Spencer and Saffie Osborne, is the one I want to be with. He went close off this sort of rating, beaten 0.3L off 64 on 14 October, was staying on at the finish last time and wears headgear for the first time.
The risk is EAZY ON THE EYE, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 2.0 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
a soft-ground winner over this trip last month and beaten a neck over further last time, staying on strongly
The one worry is yard out of form.
EAZY ON THE EYE rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — 1 run on soft or heavy, never won, never placed — and today is heavy.
The dangers are EUPHONIA at 10/1 and SPIRIT OF BREEZE at 16/1 (went close off this mark).
PHYSIQUE is the only confirmed front-runner, at a track where making the running is worth a little (front-runners win 2.0 times their share).
PHYSIQUE at 22/1, Micky Fenton and Grace McEntee, looks the most likely of these. He won by 3.75L (~7.5lb), raised 3lb — 4.5lb in hand and is a twice-winner over this course.
SIERRA SANDS rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — never run on soft or heavy in 11 starts — and today is heavy.
The dangers are THE QUIET GENT at 13/2 (went close off this mark) and YES I'M MALI at 4/1 (went close off this mark).
Non-runners: Court Drive.
ZOUSTAR DREAMS at 15/2, Ed Dunlop and Ryan Moore, is the one I keep coming back to. He has already run to within touching distance off this sort of figure, beaten 0.3L off 67 on 6 October and was staying on at the finish last time.
The risk is FENLANDER, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 2.0 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
The dangers are CAMELEY DAYS at 18/1 (went close off this mark) and HOLBACHE at 33/1 (went close off this mark).
PLATINUM PRINCE at 8/1, Jamie Moore & Josh Moore with Toby Moore taking off 5lb, is the one I make it. He races off a mark 4lb below the 67 it won from back in August 2025, handles the ground, with a win from 4 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
AMARACHI rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — never run on soft or heavy in 18 starts — and today is heavy.
The dangers are ATMOSPHERE at 9/4 (went close off this mark) and RHYTHM N ROCK at 18/1.
Southwell
FLETCHER'S FLIGHT at 10/1, Charlie Wallis and Christian Howarth, is the one I keep coming back to. He went close off this sort of rating, beaten 0.5L off 57 on 3 October, should be suited by the ground, placed once from 8 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The dangers are ALEPPO PEPPER at 9/1 (went close off this mark) and TWILIGHT MADNESS at 10/1 (a course winner).
TIME TURNER at 10/1, Edward Bethell and Oisin Orr, is the one I want to be with. He was only just denied off a similar mark, beaten 0.3L off 63 on 16 July and was staying on at the finish last time.
looked to be travelling really strongly last time when his path was blocked, stays 2m and more, and will be winning soon
The one worry is yard out of form.
The dangers are RUBELLITE at 9/2 (a course winner) and FRAM CASTLE at 6/1 (went close off this mark).
FLIGHTOFTHEPHOENIX at 6/1, Charles Hills and Finley Marsh, is the one I would be with. He has already run to within touching distance off this sort of figure, beaten 1L off 72 on 2 October 2025 and comes from a yard in good heart at 20%.
The dangers are EVERYONEKNOWSADAVE at 9/2 (a course winner) and GOLSPIE at 12/1 (a course winner).
IMOLA at 11/1, Joey Ramsden with Alex Jary taking off 3lb, is the one I would side with. He knows how to win round here and was staying on at the finish last time.
The one worry is run style against this track.
The dangers are ALTERITY at 25/1 (well handicapped) and FILLY EILISH at 9/2 (a course winner).
IT'SNEVERJUSTONE at 11/1, David Loughnane and Hector Crouch, is the bet, and this is the profile the whole thing is built around. He races off a mark 5lb below the 77 it won from back in July 2025 and was staying on at the finish last time.
The dangers are RAPIDE VEGA at 9/2 (went close off this mark) and ECCLEFECHAN at 14/1 (went close off this mark).
Non-runners: Gunfighter.
MOLLISHA at 25/1, Brian Ellison and George Wood, looks the most likely of these. He was staying on at the finish last time and should be suited by the ground, placed once from 2 on it.
The dangers are DIAMOND BLUE POINT at 13/2 (from a yard in form) and LADY JEMIMA at 11/1 (went close off this mark).
Not much to go on here with these largely unexposed, so I am leaning on the yard and who is riding.
ACCLAMIQUE gets the vote at 3/1 for William Haggas, ridden by Cieren Fallon. William Haggas is running at 19% over the past fortnight, and it wears headgear for the first time.
The dangers are POINTED at 11/8 and ASTRONETTE at 11/4.
AY UP DUCK at 6/1, Michael Appleby and Kevin Stott, is the one I make it. He knows how to win round here, handles the ground, with a win from 4 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The dangers are HYPNOTISED at 11/4 (a course winner) and ROCK IGUANA at 50/1 (a course winner).
STANLEY SPENCER at 14/1, Fionn McSharry and Oisin McSweeney, gets the vote, and it is the kind of race we wait for. He has had 4 of his last 4 starts on the wrong ground and his mark is 5lb lower for it and has already won round this track twice.
The risk is EM FOUR, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 1.9 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
The dangers are PAPA COCKTAIL at 14/1 (a course winner) and PARADISE WALK at 10/1 (went close off this mark).
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