Paggane heads a four-runner field at Carlisle over 20 furlongs and is the call on our figures, rated 144 and five pounds ahead of her nearest pursuer. That margin is a solid edge rather than a stranglehold, so Apple Away (139) is the one to fear and is entitled to make this a proper contest over the staying trip. Obsessedwithyou (120) and Celestial Fashion (101) look a long way adrift on our numbers, which leaves this looking a straight match between the top two. Paggane has the better credentials and is our selection.