Horse Racing Tips – Epsom Derby Day
Derby Day is always one of my favourite days of the entire season. Epsom is a unique track that catches plenty of horses out, with the undulations, camber and downhill run making it a completely different test to anywhere else in the country. It’s a card packed full of quality from start to finish, and while there are a few short-priced favourites that look tough to oppose, I’ve tried to find a mixture of solid selections and a few horses at bigger prices that I think are capable of outrunning their odds. Hopefully we can finish one of the biggest days of the racing year with a few winners.
13:30 Epsom
I’m not 100% convinced the very short-priced favourite Never So Brave is a 7f horse these days, as I’d much prefer to see him over a mile. I’m going to take a chance that the classy Alcantor comes on bundles from his reappearance run back in May, which was also his first start for the Joseph O’Brien yard. He won multiple times for Andre Fabre and may be able to get first run on the favourite tomorrow.
Selection: Alcantor 4/1 Win Bet
14:05 Epsom
I think this is a really tricky race. Sparks Fly concedes weight all round, while She’s Perfect would have a great chance if returning to the form she showed in the French 1000 Guineas last year. However, I’m going to side with Andrew Balding’s Pacific Mission. I think his last run was disappointing given the expectations, but sometimes a performance can be too bad to be true. He was backed into favouritism that day and never really got involved. The step up in trip looks likely to suit, and I still believe there’s plenty more to come from this horse.
Selection: Pacific Mission 11/2 Eachway Bet
14:40 Epsom
Since Calandagan was beaten just half a length by Jan Brueghel in this race last year, he’s gone on to win five races on the bounce. I think this will be a proper test of stamina and, looking at the make-up of the race, I hate to say it but I actually think he should be odds-on rather than even money. The price is too short for me to make him a NAP, but I would be very surprised indeed if he doesn’t win today.
Selection: Calandagan Win Bet
15:15 Epsom
Nothing like a 20-runner 5f sprint to keep you awake at night. This is a super-tricky race indeed, but Dream Composer caught my eye on his second start for Tony Carroll last time out. He looked like he took an age to get going but was finishing stronger than anything at the end, eventually finishing fourth, beaten just 0.3 lengths.
He runs off a mark of 84 tomorrow and won over this course and distance two years ago off a mark of 89. If Tony has managed to get this horse back somewhere near his best, and he gets a little luck in running, he could go very close at odds of 11/1.
Selection: Dream Composer 11/1 Eachway Bet
16:00 Epsom – The Betfred Derby
The big race of the day, and what a race it is. It’s crazy to think that Poker Face, the outsider of the field at 200/1, reportedly cost over £4 million just a year ago. Mental.
Anyway, back to the racing. Can anyone beat Aidan O’Brien? I don’t think so, not this year anyway. He could quite possibly fill the first three places tomorrow, and I just hope I pick the right one.
With the ground potentially on the soft side, I’d be inclined to stay away from Benvenuto Cellini as I believe he’s a top-of-the-ground horse. I’ve been a fan of Pierre Bonnard for a while now, and I think he’s had the perfect two prep runs to bring him to peak fitness for this race. The ground conditions look ideal and, at 13/2, he looks a fair price to make it four wins on the bounce for the Derby master, Mr O’Brien.
Selection: Pierre Bonnard 13/2 Eachway Bet
16:40 Epsom
Starlight Time has been off the track for 212 days, but he was hugely impressive when winning over a mile at Chelmsford back in November, pulling clear in the closing stages. If he’s filled out a bit and strengthened up over the winter, I think this horse could have some serious potential.
For me, the obvious concern is fitness after such a long absence, but if he’s ready to roll, the step up in trip looks likely to suit him down to the ground. At 11/2, he looks a fair price for a win bet.
Selection: Starlight Time 11/2 Eachway Bet
17:20 Epsom
Give It To Me Oj won back-to-back races here in September last year off marks of 78 and 85. He then went to Cheltenham after a 72-day break, where he disappointed, before being tried over two miles at Goodwood, which is certainly not his trip on the Flat.
This return to 1m4f looks ideal, the ground should suit perfectly, and the booking of Toby Moore is particularly interesting as his 7lb claim means the horse is effectively running off 82, which is 3lb lower than when he last won here.
At 7/1 with five places available, this looks a cracking each-way bet in my opinion.
Selection: Give It To Me Oj 13/2 Eachway Play
17:55 Epsom
The lucky last, and I’m going to take a chance on last year’s winner, Sondad.
He won this race last year off a mark of 85, was raised 6lb and then finished second before climbing further to a mark of 93. He looks a progressive horse and I don’t think a mark of 92 is beyond him at all.
I’d draw a line through his reappearance run at York, where he was stuck on the wrong side and never really had a chance to get involved. With Joanna Mason taking the ride, I think he’ll be bang there tomorrow and, at 7/1 with five places on offer, he looks another solid each-way play.
Selection: Sondad 7/1 Eacway Play