Horse Racing Tips For Friday – Epsom Oaks Day
One of my favourite days of the Flat season with Oaks Day at Epsom. It’s a track unlike any other in Britain and every year we see horses either love it or absolutely hate it. The recent rain has added another layer to the puzzle and I think conditions are going to catch a few people out. Draws, pace and handling the track are all absolutely crucial around Epsom, especially in the sprint races. I’ve tried to look for horses that not only have the ability but also have conditions in their favour and can offer a bit of value against some of the shorter-priced runners.
13:30 Epsom
A really tricky opener in this 16-runner 5f dash and the hardest part is trying to work out where the draw bias is going to come from. I’m going to side with a horse that should be able to get a good early position from a high draw. She’s Got A Brother shaped really nicely on the all-weather on his first two starts, winning both races impressively, and his handicap debut wasn’t a disgrace at all in a strong 17-runner handicap at York. I think he’ll come on a fair bit for that experience and his pedigree suggests softer conditions won’t be a problem. Around 5/1 with five places on offer, I think we’re going to have to play each-way.
Selection: She’s Got A Brother – Each-Way @ 5/1 (5 Places)
14:05 Epsom
I really liked the last performance of Dandyman Dan at Sandown in Listed company. He was slowly away that day and made up plenty of eye-catching ground late on when the race was effectively over. He’s untested on softer conditions but looking at the way he races, I don’t think it’ll be an issue. The step up to 6f should suit and Saffie Osborne keeps the ride. At around 15/2 with four places available, he looks a solid each-way play and hopefully can produce a huge performance.
Selection: Dandyman Dan – Each-Way @ 15/2 (4 Places)
14:40 Epsom
Persica is now 2 from 2 at Epsom and won this very race twelve months ago. He hasn’t managed to get his head in front since, but you get the feeling this has been the target for a while. His comeback run was much better than the bare form suggests. After more than 160 days off the track, he was given a very considerate ride and wasn’t knocked about at all. The winner that day absolutely bolted up and looks a level above this company, while Persica was beaten less than two lengths by the horses that finished second and third despite not being fully wound up. Epsom suits him down to the ground, he’ll sit quietly stalking the pace and hopefully pounce late. Back at his favourite track, I think he’ll take a lot of beating.
Selection: Persica – Win Bet
15:15 Epsom
Auld Toon Loon was very unlucky last time out and finally looks like he’s starting to hit form on his second run of the season. He finished third in a race where the first three were separated by very little and, more importantly, he met trouble at a crucial stage around two furlongs from home. With a clear run I genuinely think he would have won fairly comfortably. Shoemark takes over in the saddle and that catches the eye. The extra ease in the ground should suit and with what looks a strong pace on paper, he should be staying on better than most late on. At 11/1 with five places available, he looks a cracking each-way bet.
Selection: Auld Toon Loon – Each-Way @ 11/1 (5 Places)
16:00 Epsom – The Oaks
It’s always dangerous taking on the combination of Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore in a Classic, but I’m not entirely convinced the race will pan out perfectly for the favourite. Instead, I’m going to take a chance on Thundering On. She was desperately unlucky on her reappearance when beaten right on the line by Skydance, the million-pound filly, over a mile. Last time out she was arguably even more impressive. She found herself short of room on the rail before showing a really smart turn of foot once daylight appeared. The clock backed the performance up too and she wasn’t even at full speed for part of the race. At around 9/2, she looks a bit of value in a race where a lot of the market leaders have questions to answer. Hopefully McMonagle can produce her at exactly the right time.
Selection: Thundering On – Win Bet @ 9/2
16:40 Epsom
I tipped Mister Winston up at Newmarket last time and he was just never really at the races. The run was almost too bad to be true and I’m happy to put a line through it. The fact Oisin Murphy keeps the ride is enough encouragement for me to have another go. On his day he’s a very classy horse with plenty of natural pace and if things fall right he can be extremely dangerous. I’m hoping the ground was quicker than ideal last time and that the softer conditions bring about a much better performance. At 7/1, he looks a solid each-way play.
Selection: Mister Winston – Each-Way @ 7/1
17:15 Epsom
Northern Champion has been running in some very strong races over in Meydan and I think Ed Walker’s three-year-old colt could surprise a few people here. Being by Wootton Bassett, there’s every chance he’ll appreciate a bit more ease in the ground and one thing I really like about him is his attitude. He’s the type of horse that hits the front and then finds more when challenged, which is a trait you simply can’t teach. He looks the type to relish a battle up the famous Epsom straight and at around 9/2, he’s a win-only bet for me.
Selection: Northern Champion – Win Bet @ 9/2
17:50 Epsom
Colombier has some very strong French form in the book and I’m more than happy to forgive his first run in Britain. The ground wasn’t ideal, he raced far too keenly and paid the price late on. That experience should have taught him plenty and with James Doyle taking over, I’d expect him to settle much better this time around. If he does, I think we’ll see a completely different horse. Based on his French form alone he has every chance of getting involved and the softer conditions should suit him much better. At 12/1 with five places available, he looks a really solid each-way bet to finish the card.
Selection: Colombier – Each-Way @ 12/1 (5 Places)