Our selection is Silent City, preferred here not for topping the figures but for a genuinely progressive profile that fits this step up well. She strikes us as sharper than the bare form figures suggest, with conditions and fitness both playing to her strengths. Eupator, A Major Payne and Morcar all pose the main threats and cannot be dismissed, but on balance we're siding with Silent City. Confidence in the selection is moderate given how tightly this field is bunched.