Scalpnagoon is our selection, preferred to the co-top-rated Astley on a fitness edge, a more solid book of form, and conditions in his favour. His last five starts have brought four places without a win, but it's a consistent profile, and a quick 12-day turnaround has him fresh for this test. Astley matches him on our figures but returns from a 79-day absence, while Caesar Rock and Nastya both arrive with solid recent form of their own and remain the chief dangers. Confidence in the selection is low, with this field tightly rated at the top.