Thyer rates narrowly behind Sonoran on these figures but a progressive profile, a fitness edge over the top-rated runner and clock evidence that backs the form all point in the same direction, making the case that the bare ratings understate where this horse currently stands. Sonoran heads the field on paper and cannot be dismissed, while Great Mover and Mighty Danu both sit close enough in the rankings to keep the finish honest on this ten-furlong Curragh trip on good ground. The confidence here is modest and punters should be aware this is a competitive twelve-runner heat, but the weight of form evidence tips the balance. The selection is Thyer.