36 races across 5 meetings: Carlisle, Cork, Curragh, Huntingdon and Worcester.
Best Bets
Won on similar ground, Proven at the trip, Course winner, Finishing well last time. Long absence: 603 days off — over a year
beaten 1.75L off 96 in July. Proven on the ground, Yard in form
beaten 1.5L off 116 (1lb higher than today) in April. Proven on the ground, Proven at the trip, Course winner
Placed on the ground, Proven at the trip, Course winner, Significant booking
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Carlisle
WE'RE RED AND BLUE at 11/8, Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill and Jonjo O'Neill Jr., is the one I make it. He comes from a yard in good heart at 29% and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The one worry is weakened last time and long absence.
WALKING ON A DREAM rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — every win (2) has come on soft or heavy — and today is good.
Non-runners: Fishery Lane and Kahavari.
RONNIE RUSSET at 15/8, Jedd O'Keeffe and Brian Hughes, looks the pick of these. He has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The one worry is long absence.
OBSESSEDWITHYOU at 6/1, Jamie Snowden and Sam Twiston-Davies, looks the pick of these. He comes from a yard in good heart at 23%, handles the ground, with 3 wins from 9 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
PAGGANE rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time, and there is no comparable mark in this code to judge the rise.
The main danger is CELESTIAL FASHION at 66/1 (a course winner).
Non-runners: Panic Attack.
Each-way is the way in at 6/1.
TO CHASE A DREAM at 11/4, John Dawson and Conor O'Farrell, is the one I want to be with. He has already won round this track twice and was staying on at the finish last time.
Twice a winner here at Carlisle and both of those came on this sort of ground, and he is only 3lb above the 120 he won off.
The one worry is long absence.
The dangers are NURSE SUSAN at 18/1 (a course winner) and PERSEUS WAY at 11/2 (staying on last time).
Non-runners: Railway Bell.
POTTERS CHARM at 4/5, Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies and Sam Twiston-Davies, looks the one to be on. He races off a mark 16lb below the 153 it won from in October and won last time out.
DOYEN QUEST rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time off 143 and runs off 149 — up 6lb.
The main danger is WENDIGO at 7/2 (won with plenty in hand).
4 of these want to be on the pace, which usually means they go too quick and it falls to something coming from behind.
CAUGHTINYOURTRANCE at 7/1, James Moffatt and Brian Hughes, gets the vote. He drops in grade after running 2nd in a Class 2, beaten 2.25L, drops to Class 3, handles the ground, with a win from 4 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The dangers are FORTUNATE MAN at 3/1 (on a falling mark) and GRAND GESTE at 9/2 (after a wind operation).
Each-way is the way in at 7/1, 3 places at 1/5.
A tricky one to unpick — most of these have barely been seen, so the stable and the booking matter more than the figures.
BUSINESS CLASS gets the vote at 3/1 for Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill, ridden by Jonjo O'Neill Jr.. Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill is running at 29% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are MEETMEBYTHELAKE at 2/1 and CONTAIN YOURSELF at 9/2.
Cork
MARCO DU SEUIL at 11/8, Gordon Elliott and Jack Kennedy, looks the pick of these. He was staying on at the finish last time and was placed on its only start on this ground.
The dangers are SIERRASCOPE at 5/1 (not hard ridden last time) and DROM COL CHOILLE at 33/1 (in first-time headgear).
COSMIC FRONT at 11/1, W. P. Mullins and Paul Townend, just about gets the nod. He comes from a yard in good heart at 21%.
The main danger is CORNELIENNE at 5/2.
Each-way is the way in at 11/1, 3 places at 1/5.
TAKE THE FREE at 16/1, E Bolger and Harry Cobden, is the one I would be with. He should be suited by the ground and gets a trip he has won over.
The dangers are BLACK BAMBOO at 40/1 (a course winner) and IN FOR THE NIGHT at 7/1 (staying on last time).
Non-runners: Krabat.
Each-way is the way in at 16/1, 3 places at 1/4.
MINELLA EMPEROR at 5/1, Emmet Mullins and Mr M J O'Neill, is the bet, and this is the profile the whole thing is built around. He won by 12L (~7.2lb) and escapes a penalty — 7.2lb in hand and knows how to win round here.
The one worry is yard out of form.
The dangers are ROC DINO at 13/8 (won last time) and SIEGE OF CARTHAGE at 12/1.
VICAR STREET at 15/2, W. P. Mullins and Mark Walsh, looks the one to be on. He was staying on at the finish last time and comes from a yard in good heart at 21%.
LOVE ME TENDER rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time, and there is no comparable mark in this code to judge the rise.
The dangers are SIR ALLEN at 66/1 and KILBARRY SAINT at 80/1.
Each-way is the way in at 15/2, 3 places at 1/5.
BANTER AT THE BAR at 13/2, M F Morris and Harry Cobden, is the one I would be with. He was only just denied off a similar mark, beaten 2.75L off 119 on 22 March, should be suited by the ground and has a telling booking — upgrade from a 5% rider to 21%.
The one worry is long absence.
FOU DE TOI rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won its last two off 127 and runs off 136 — up 9lb.
The dangers are YOU OUGHTA KNOW at 18/1 (well handicapped) and LE COQ HARDI at 11/1 (well handicapped).
Each-way is the way in at 13/2, 3 places at 1/5.
3 of these want to be on the pace, which usually means they go too quick and it falls to something coming from behind.
THEANNIVERSARY MAN at 14/1, James M Barcoe and Daniel King, is the one I want to be with. He has a course win to his name, handles the ground, with a win from 6 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The one worry is run style against this track.
The dangers are CHESTERBAYLAD at 40/1 and CRYPTO CRASH at 18/1.
Each-way is the way in at 14/1, 5 places at 1/5.
Curragh
A tricky one to unpick — most of these have barely been seen, so the stable and the booking matter more than the figures.
ADVERSITY gets the vote at 8/1 for Miss Natalia Lupini, ridden by Chris Hayes. The market makes it favourite.
The dangers are CHOCTAW NATION at 4/5 and BOOK OF KELLS at 8/1.
BUDDY BATT at 13/2, Tracey Collins and R. P. Cleary, is the standout, and this is exactly the sort of race to find one. He races off a mark 7lb below the 77 it won from in March and has the right side of the draw.
The one worry is run style against this track.
The dangers are BAY OF SUPREMACY at 16/1 (well handicapped) and SMOKE THEM OUT at 7/1 (a course winner).
Each-way is the way in at 13/2, 4 places at 1/5.
EXCELLENT BELIEVE at 6/4, Stephen Thorne and Jack Kearney, looks the one to be on. He was only just denied off a similar mark, beaten 1.5L off 99 on 26 September and comes from a yard in good heart at 20%.
The dangers are KEY WITNESS at 10/1 (a course winner) and GO JUST DO IT at 8/1 (well handicapped).
3 of these want to be on the pace, which usually means they go too quick and it falls to something coming from behind.
LA TULIPE NOIRE at 28/1, Aengus King, is the one that stands out. He won by 4.25L (~7.4lb), raised 4lb — 3.4lb in hand and is back quickly, ran 3 days ago.
The dangers are THEREWILLBEGLORY at 6/1 (went close off this mark) and LOINGSEOIR at 28/1 (a course winner).
Each-way is the way in at 28/1, 5 places at 1/5.
SNAPRETEND at 12/1, Joseph Patrick O'Brien and J M Sheridan, is the one I make it. He won last time out, handles the ground, with 2 wins from 3 on it and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The dangers are GALILEO DAME at 20/1 (went close off this mark) and CHALLY CHUTE at 4/1 (a course winner).
Each-way is the way in at 12/1, 3 places at 1/5.
PERRY MASON at 11/1, Maurice Andrew Ahern and Leigh Roche, is the one I want to be with. He is a 3 times-winner over this course, should be suited by the ground, placed once from 2 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
3 wins and a place from 6 on heavy and a three-time winner at the Curragh, and the ground has come right for him.
The dangers are TITANIUM at 70/1 (a course winner) and VICTORY TIP at 20/1 (a course winner).
Each-way is the way in at 11/1, 5 places at 1/5.
STARTING FIFTEEN at 4/1, E McNamara and W. J. Lee, looks the most likely of these. He should be suited by the ground, placed once from 2 on it.
The dangers are LILANNBEE at 16/1 (suited by the track) and NAVY GUITAR at 8/1 (suited by the track).
TOGETHER NOW at 5/1, Aidan O'Brien and Gavin Ryan, looks the one to be on. He won by 3.75L (~4.7lb) and escapes a penalty — 4.7lb in hand and has a course win to his name.
The one worry is wrong side of the draw.
The dangers are IN MY TEENS at 7/1 (a course winner) and THREAD OF GOLD at 2/1 (a course winner).
Huntingdon
BLACKWATER LILLY at 11/4, Neil King and Jack Quinlan, just about gets the nod. He has had 3 of his last 4 starts on the wrong trip, back to 16f today where he wins and his mark is 4lb lower for it and is back quickly, ran 4 days ago.
The one worry is weakened last time.
The dangers are SHALLOW RIVER at 15/8 (a course winner) and PIGEON HOUSE at 11/8 (well handicapped).
CODE NAME CUBITT at 9/4, Jamie Snowden with Isabelle Ryder taking off 5lb, looks the pick of these. He comes from a yard in good heart at 23% and has a telling booking — upgrade from a 7% rider to 13%.
The one worry is long absence.
The dangers are SIR EDWARD LEAR at 20/1 (from a yard in form) and BANKATARY at 10/3 (in first-time headgear).
SAMUEL SPADE at 5/2, Ben Pauling and Ben Jones, looks the one to be on. He handles the ground, with a win from 4 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The one worry is yard out of form.
BROADWAY HONEY rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won its last two off 96 and runs off 105 — up 9lb.
The main danger is BACK IT UP at 7/2 (from a yard in form).
BLUE TOPAZ at 7/2, Fergal O'Brien and Jack Hogan, is the one I would side with. He won by 4L (~4lb) and escapes a penalty — 4lb in hand and should be suited by the ground, placed once from 2 on it.
The one worry is yard out of form.
The dangers are LITTLE LADY ROCK at 8/11 (went close off this mark) and MOYANNA at 9/2 (staying on last time).
PARK ANNONCIADE at 15/2, Sarah Humphrey and Tom Cannon, is the one I want to be with. He knows how to win round here, handles the ground, with a win from 3 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
A course winner who was beaten a length and a half off 116 in April, a pound higher than he runs off here.
The dangers are LADY KARA at 7/1 (went close off this mark) and MILAN TINO at 5/1 (went close off this mark).
Each-way is the way in at 15/2, 3 places at 1/5.
JUST A HEARTBEAT at 5/2, Harry Fry with Ciaran O'Shea taking off 7lb, is the one I want to be with. He went close off this sort of rating, beaten 1.5L off 96 on 9 April and was not given a hard time of it last time.
The one worry is long absence.
KENNY'S JEWEL rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time off 82 and runs off 100 — up 18lb.
The main danger is NALA THE LIONESS at 9/2.
CAMSHAFT at 8/1, Jonjo & A.J. O'Neill with Benjamin Macey taking off 5lb, is the one I want to be with. He was only just denied off a similar mark, beaten 1.75L off 96 on 15 July and comes from a yard in good heart at 29%.
Beaten a length and three quarters off 96 in July, which is the same mark he runs off today, and the yard is going well.
The dangers are CAPTAIN CONNOR at 9/2 (went close off this mark) and CHARLIE MY BOY at 8/1 (a course winner).
Each-way is the way in at 8/1, 3 places at 1/5.
Worcester
IN THE AGE at 14/1, Dan Skelton and Tristan Durrell, is the one I want to be with. He comes from a yard in good heart at 21%.
The dangers are DYNAMITE DEFENSE at 125/1 and FIVE BAR GATE at 12/1 (staying on last time).
Each-way is the way in at 14/1, 4 places at 1/5.
3 of these want to be on the pace, which usually means they go too quick and it falls to something coming from behind.
BROOMFIELD ADERRA at 18/1, Dan Skelton and Tristan Durrell, makes most appeal. He comes from a yard in good heart at 21% and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The one worry is weakened last time.
The dangers are MON CHAMPION at 20/1 (won with plenty in hand) and HAPPY AND FINE at 33/1.
Each-way is the way in at 18/1, 4 places at 1/5.
HENRI THE SECOND at 14/1, Paul Nicholls and Freddie Gingell, looks the one to be on. He comes from a yard in good heart at 20%, should be suited by the ground, placed once from 2 on it and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The one worry is off the track a while.
The dangers are JOHNNY'S JURY at 8/11 (from a yard in form) and DALSTON LAD at 7/1 (from a yard in form).
Each-way is the way in at 14/1, 2 places at 1/4.
KIWI RUSH at 10/1, Harry Derham and Paul O'Brien, is the one that stands out. He wears headgear for the first time and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The one worry is long absence.
Each-way is the way in at 10/1, 3 places at 1/5.
Little to separate them on form because most are unexposed, so it comes down to the yard and the booking.
EARTH MAID gets the vote at 10/1 for Dan Skelton, ridden by Tristan Durrell. Dan Skelton is running at 21% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are SONG OF THE STARS at 2/7 and RED MOON at 11/2.
GILI ISLAND at 50/1, Dan Skelton and Kielan Woods, just about gets the nod. He comes from a yard in good heart at 21%.
Each-way is the way in at 50/1, 3 places at 1/5.
THEATRE TOM at 6/5, Olly Murphy and Sean Bowen, is the one I keep coming back to. He was going well when coming down last time and comes from a yard in good heart at 25%.
The dangers are KATIE'S MELODY at 11/1 (went close off this mark) and LOCKED DOWN LAD at 12/1 (went close off this mark).