39 races across 5 meetings: Ayr, Naas, Pontefract, Southwell and Yarmouth.
Best Bets
4lb below its flat winning mark of 84 back in November 2025. beaten 0.5L off 80 in June 2025
7lb below its flat winning mark of 77 back in May 2025. won by 1.75L (~4.4lb), raised 1lb — 3.4lb in hand
won by 2.25L (~3.4lb) and escapes a penalty — 3.4lb in hand. beaten 1.25L off 90 in May 2025
2 of the last 4 starts on the wrong ground and trip, back to 6f today where he wins, mark down 7lb. beaten 1.25L off 92 in September
3lb below its flat winning mark of 49 back in August 2025. beaten 0.25L off 48 (2lb higher than today) in August 2025
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Going watch
- Ayr: declared Good To Soft, 5mm of rain before the first — we are reading it as heavy.
- A further 2mm is forecast during racing.
Ayr
Little to separate them on form because most are unexposed, so it comes down to the yard and the booking.
PERFECT HEIR gets the vote at 4/1 for Andrew Balding, ridden by P. J. McDonald. Andrew Balding is running at 20% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are BASSRAH at 11/4 and SHARED ODYSSEY at 5/1.
KING'S CROWN at 18/1, Michael Dods and Sean Kirrane, just about gets the nod. He races off a mark 6lb below the 75 it won from in January, gets a trip he has won over and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
STARTLING rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won its last two off 60 and runs off 65 — up 5lb.
The dangers are THISTLE NIL at 12/1 (a course winner) and EDGEWATER DRIVE at 50/1 (won with plenty in hand).
SWEET KISS at 7/1, Tim Easterby with Jack Nicholls taking off 3lb, is the one I would be with. He ran a big race off much the same mark, beaten 0.05L off 59 on 22 August, has been tried on this ground once in 20 starts, and was placed and gets a trip he has won over.
The one worry is run style against this track.
MUDITA rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — never run on soft or heavy in 7 starts — and today is heavy.
The main danger is THANKFULLY at 20/1 (from a yard in form).
HAVE SECRET at 18/1, Richard & Peter Fahey and Billy Garritty, makes most appeal. He won by 2.25 lengths and escapes a penalty, leaving 3.4lb in hand and was staying on at the finish last time.
The dangers are IMPARTIALITY at 11/2 (went close off this mark) and GALYX at 4/1 (staying on last time).
3 of these want to be on the pace, which usually means they go too quick and it falls to something coming from behind.
RUNNINSONOFAGUN at 11/1, Tristan Davidson and Jason Hart, is the one that stands out. He has already won around this track and comes from a yard in good heart at 20%.
The dangers are ATMOSPHERE at 6/1 (went close off this mark) and CISCO DISCO at 15/2 (a course winner).
PENELOPE'S SISTER at 12/1, Jim Goldie with Rhys Elliott taking off 5lb, is the one — exactly the sort of race we are looking for. He races off a mark 10lb below the 66 it won from back in September 2025, has won here 3 times and is back quickly, ran 5 days ago.
The dangers are YOU SEXY THING at 6/1 (went close off this mark) and SAILTHISSHIPALONE at 7/1 (well handicapped).
HIGHFIELD VIKING at 14/1, John & Sean Quinn and Jason Hart, is the standout, and this is exactly the sort of race to find one. He won by 4.25 lengths and escapes a penalty, leaving 8.5lb in hand and knows how to win round here.
The risk is CARMEL VALLEY, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 2.5 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
The one worry is run style against this track.
The dangers are VINCE LE PRINCE at 6/1 (went close off this mark) and JKR COBBLER at 6/1 (a course winner).
NORTHWEST PASSAGE at 9/1, Ivan Furtado and Jason Hart, is the one that stands out. He won by 15 lengths and was raised only 14lb for it, leaving 8.5lb in hand, handles the ground, with a win from 1 on it and has a telling booking — upgrade from a 6% rider to 12%.
The dangers are SPIRIT OF ACKLAM at 5/1 (a course winner) and MINSTREL KNIGHT at 10/1 (on a falling mark).
Non-runners: Moon Over Miami.
Naas
Hard to be confident with this many unexposed, so the yard and the jockey are doing most of the talking.
LADY H gets the vote at 40/1 for Henry de Bromhead, ridden by G. F. Carroll. Henry de Bromhead is running at 24% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are LUCA BRILLANTE at 9/4 and BE IN LOVE at 4/1.
Hard to be confident with this many unexposed, so the yard and the jockey are doing most of the talking.
SALT LAKE gets the vote at 4/6 for Robson De Aguiar, ridden by Donagh O'Connor. The market makes it favourite.
The dangers are OUR BOY BAILEY at 5/1 and BOLD COMMANDER at 5/1.
NEW BOND STREET at 4/7, P. Twomey and W. J. Lee, just about gets the nod. He ran a big race off much the same mark, beaten 2L off 87 on 16 August.
The main danger is ABLETAI at 9/2 (in first-time headgear).
LILY BEAR at 11/1, M C Grassick and Colin Keane, is the one I make it. He has a telling booking — upgrade from a 4% rider to 15% on a horse out of form.
The dangers are ANNIE BATT at 11/4 (staying on last time) and SANTO PARVENUE at 8/1 (in first-time headgear).
RAZMATAZ at 15/2, Donnacha Aidan O'Brien and Chris Hayes, looks the most likely of these. He wears headgear for the first time.
The main danger is SANTERNO at 15/8 (in first-time headgear).
HIGHEST ORDER at 10/1, G. M. Lyons and Colin Keane, looks the pick of these. He has a telling booking — upgrade from a 8% rider to 15% on a horse out of form.
The dangers are GOLDEN ARIZONA at 7/1 (staying on last time) and OLD JOANIE at 5/1 (staying on last time).
Non-runners: Ar Son Na Cuise, Maggie Walker, Winnie's Wish, Just One Show, Razmataz and Snapequus.
A tricky one to unpick — most of these have barely been seen, so the stable and the booking matter more than the figures.
STAR GLORY gets the vote at 2/1 for Noel Meade, ridden by Colin Keane. The market makes it favourite.
The dangers are CAPITAL OF PRIDE at 3/1 and DIAMONDS AND DAMES at 6/1.
A tricky one to unpick — most of these have barely been seen, so the stable and the booking matter more than the figures.
KING CADOR gets the vote at 3/1 for Aidan O'Brien, ridden by R. P. Whelan. The market makes it favourite.
The dangers are VIENNA WALTZ at 9/2 and SOLDAT at 11/2.
Pontefract
FISCAL POLICY at 5/1, Ruth Carr and Harry Vigors, is the one I want to be on here. He races off a mark 7lb below the 77 it won from back in May 2025 and is a twice-winner over this course.
The dangers are IDEAL GUEST at 6/1 (a course winner) and ONE OF OUR OWN at 9/1 (a course winner).
Not much to go on here with these largely unexposed, so I am leaning on the yard and who is riding.
UBETTANOTBLINK gets the vote at 70/1 for Craig Lidster, ridden by Cam Hardie. Craig Lidster is running at 20% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are OUR SON OSCAR at 9/4 and ASHINA at 9/4.
LIGHTENING COMPANY at 16/1, Ben Haslam with Harry Vigors taking off 5lb, looks the most likely of these. He has already won round this track 3 times and drops in grade after running 2nd in a Class 3, beaten 1.5L, drops to Class 4.
The dangers are MORBEH at 7/2 (in first-time headgear) and ALMA LATINA at 5/1 (a course winner).
A tricky one to unpick — most of these have barely been seen, so the stable and the booking matter more than the figures.
FAN ME gets the vote at 11/4 for William Haggas, ridden by Cieren Fallon. William Haggas is running at 28% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are RIVER NILE at 10/11 and DEVIL'S BRIGADE at 9/4.
BILLYB at 20/1, Craig Lidster and Shane Gray, is the one I keep coming back to. He races off a mark 4lb below the 84 it won from back in November 2025, has the right side of the draw and comes from a yard in good heart at 20%.
The dangers are FREDDIE STEADY GO at 16/1 (on a falling mark) and MILTEYE at 10/1 (went close off this mark).
PUNXSUTAWNEY PHIL at 20/1, Mark Walford with Olivia Haines taking off 7lb, gets the vote. He drops in grade after running 2nd in a Class 2, beaten 1.5L, drops to Class 5, handles the ground, with a win from 12 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The dangers are NO MORE BOLERO at 9/2 (went close off this mark) and PFINGSTBERG at 25/1 (won last time).
SUNNY ORANGE at 9/1, Tim Easterby and Duran Fentiman, is the one I would be with. He ran a big race off much the same mark, beaten 0.5L off 59 (1lb higher than today) on 5 August, should be suited by the ground, placed twice from 12 on it and has a telling booking — a rider who has won on it before returns.
The dangers are DISTINCTION at 12/1 (a course winner) and DUBAI VENTURE at 3/1 (a course winner).
Southwell
WOPBOPALOOMOP at 5/2, Richard Spencer and Jack Callan, is the one I would side with. He won by 1.5 lengths and escapes a penalty, leaving 3.8lb in hand and comes from a yard in good heart at 23%.
The dangers are SABLE ISLAND at 14/1 (went close off this mark) and DEFIANT DREAM at 50/1 (from a yard in form).
BLACKJACK is the only confirmed front-runner, at a track where making the running is worth a little (front-runners win 2.0 times their share).
BLACKJACK at 14/1, Alan Brown and Luke Morris, is the one I make it. He has already won round this track 3 times, handles the ground, with 6 wins from 50 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The dangers are JESSE LUC at 8/1 (a course winner) and SARAFINA MSHAIRI at 16/1 (a course winner).
Non-runners: Speeding Bullet.
LEVEL LOOK at 4/6, Andrew Balding and Callum Hutchinson, just about gets the nod. He won by 7.5 lengths and escapes a penalty, leaving 7.5lb in hand and handles the ground, with 2 wins from 4 on it.
The dangers are NEW YORK MINUTE at 8/1 (a course winner) and CHARGING THUNDER at 9/1 (a course winner).
STORM FORCE TEN at 11/8, Jamie Osborne and William Carver, looks the one to be on. He drops in grade after running 5th in a Class 2, beaten 1.5L, drops to Class 4, was staying on at the finish last time and comes from a yard in good heart at 42%.
The dangers are COOL KING at 13/2 (from a yard in form) and BULLRIDER at 15/8.
A hard race to weigh up with most of these unexposed, so the yard and the booking count for more than the form book.
SAYIDAH IFFRAAJ gets the vote at 15/2 for George Boughey, ridden by Jack Callan. George Boughey is running at 19% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are DONTWORRYABOUTME at 9/4 and DON'T STOP MOVIN at 9/4.
COOL MOLLY at 4/1, Ollie Sangster and David Probert, just about gets the nod. He has had 3 of his last 4 starts on the wrong ground and his mark is 3lb lower for it and has already won around this track.
The dangers are JUSTICE COURT at 13/2 (won last time) and ROI DE COEUR at 2/1 (went close off this mark).
GLADIADORA at 10/1, Charlie Clover with Liam Wright taking off 3lb, is the one — exactly the sort of race we are looking for. He won by 5.5 lengths and was raised only 1lb for it, leaving 8.6lb in hand and has a course win to his name.
The dangers are ROYAL COUNTY GLORY at 9/4 (went close off this mark) and SAILOR'S RETURN at 7/1 (a course winner).
HAVIN A FLYER at 7/2, Rebecca Menzies and Silvestre De Sousa, looks the most likely of these. He knows how to win round here, handles the ground, with a win from 14 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The one worry is weakened last time.
The dangers are PHOENIX BEACH at 11/1 (a course winner) and ONE FOR HARVEY at 9/2 (well handicapped).
THE PUG at 11/2, Olly Murphy with Miss Jemima Stewart taking off 3lb, is the one I keep coming back to. He races off a mark 3lb below the 49 it won from back in August 2025, is a twice-winner over this course and is back quickly, ran 5 days ago.
The dangers are GLITTER CODE at 4/1 (went close off this mark) and POWER OF PRAYER at 6/1 (on a falling mark).
Yarmouth
ARIANE SKY is the only confirmed front-runner, at a track where making the running is worth a little (front-runners win 2.1 times their share).
ARIANE SKY at 11/4, James Owen and Rossa Ryan, is the one I make it. He was only just denied off a similar mark, beaten 2.75L off 63 on 13 August, should be suited by the ground and gets a trip he has won over.
The dangers are CASABLANCA DREAM at 11/2 (from a yard in form) and ZONNEVELD at 40/1 (in first-time headgear).
A tricky one to unpick — most of these have barely been seen, so the stable and the booking matter more than the figures.
CROWN RANGER gets the vote at 11/2 for Marco Botti, ridden by Benoit de la Sayette. Marco Botti is running at 31% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are WYKEHURST PARK at 5/4 and HOWLUCKYWEARE at 4/1.
SOLDIER OF THE SEA at 13/2, William Knight and Tom Marquand, looks the pick of these. He drops in grade after running 4th in a Class 2, beaten 1L, drops to Class 4, should be suited by the ground and gets a trip he has won over.
The risk is BILL THE BULL, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 1.9 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
The dangers are CATCHING DREAMS at 9/4 (staying on last time) and SYDNEY GRACE at 17/2 (went close off this mark).
Non-runners: Spirit of Lyra.
MIDNIGHT THUNDER at 5/1, Saeed bin Suroor and Oisin Murphy, is the one — exactly the sort of race we are looking for. He has had 2 of his last 4 starts on the wrong ground and trip, back to 6f today where he wins and his mark is 7lb lower for it and has won here.
The risk is RAY MON DOUGH, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 1.9 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
The one worry is long time without a win.
The dangers are ART LOVER at 15/2 (on a falling mark) and GOD OF WAR at 10/1 (well handicapped).
Non-runners: Deep Havana.
EDUCATOR at 10/1, Henrietta C Knight and Billy Loughnane, gets the vote. He won by 8 lengths and was raised only 5lb for it, leaving 3lb in hand and has already won around this track.
The one worry is weakened last time.
HEROICS rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time off 74 and runs off 78 — up 4lb.
The dangers are DIVINE KNIGHT at 11/4 (staying on last time) and ST MAWES at 8/1 (went close off this mark).
EMERY DOWN at 6/1, John Ryan and Pat Cosgrave, is the one I keep coming back to. He has already run to within touching distance off this sort of figure, beaten 2.5L off 65 on 11 September and was staying on at the finish last time.
The dangers are NOBLE GUEST at 6/1 (a course winner) and HINT OF THE JUNGLE at 11/1 (went close off this mark).
MAKES ME WONDER at 12/1, David Simcock with Jack Dace taking off 5lb, looks the one to be on. He knows how to win round here, should be suited by the ground, placed once from 2 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The risk is NEW BAY STAR, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 2.1 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
The dangers are BORN A REBEL at 10/1 (a course winner) and KHUSKHAS at 10/1 (a course winner).