23 races across 3 meetings: Curragh, Epsom and Ffos Las.
Best Bets
beaten 1.25L off 50 in August. Won on similar ground, Proven at the trip, Course winner, Won last time out, Yard in form
beaten 1.5L off 75 in September. Proven on the ground, Proven at the trip, Finishing well, and young enough to improve, Significant booking
Tried once on this ground, Proven at the trip, Finishing well, and young enough to improve, Yard in form
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Going watch
- Curragh: declared Yielding, 12mm of rain before the first — we are reading it as heavy.
- Ffos Las: declared Soft, 5mm of rain before the first — we are reading it as heavy.
Curragh
A tricky one to unpick — most of these have barely been seen, so the stable and the booking matter more than the figures.
NORMANTON gets the vote at 25/1 for David Marnane, ridden by Luke McAteer. David Marnane is running at 18% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are HMAS PERTH at 1/1 and RAGING BULL at 2/1.
Not much to go on here with these largely unexposed, so I am leaning on the yard and who is riding.
CLUSTER gets the vote at 15/8 for Joseph Patrick O'Brien, ridden by Colin Keane. Joseph Patrick O'Brien is running at 19% over the past fortnight, and the market makes it favourite.
The dangers are KINGDOM OF CAMELOT at 2/1 and BREATH OF PARADISE at 5/1.
BIG GOSSEY at 10/1, Charles O'Brien and Robert Whearty, just about gets the nod. He races off a mark 3lb below the 107 it won from in June and has won here 10 times.
The risk is CHARLES DARWIN, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 3.0 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
The dangers are POWER BLUE at 9/4 (a course winner) and CHARLES DARWIN at 25/1 (well handicapped).
TOURIN at 12/1, J A Stack and Gavin Ryan, is the one I would side with. He has the right side of the draw.
OTSANA rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — never run on soft or heavy in 2 starts — and today is heavy.
FILM SET at 12/1, Aidan O'Brien and Ryan Moore, just about gets the nod. He was staying on at the finish last time and has the right side of the draw.
The risk is LADY PATRONA, the only confirmed front-runner here — front-runners at this track win 2.9 times their share of these races, and an uncontested lead could be decisive.
One to be careful with: none of these has won or been placed on this ground.
IMMUTABLE at 18/1, Joseph G Murphy and G. F. Carroll, just about gets the nod. He won last time out, handles the ground, with 3 wins from 9 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The dangers are LIGHT UP THE DARK at 14/1 (went close off this mark) and SIRIUS at 66/1 (a course winner).
MARGOT MAE at 10/1, Mrs J. Harrington and Scott McCullagh, looks the most likely of these. He has the right side of the draw and is back quickly, ran 5 days ago.
The one worry is weakened last time.
ROMANCE rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — 1 run on soft or heavy, never won, never placed — and today is heavy.
JUSTENZIA at 7/1, Denis Gerard Hogan and Mr H C Swan, is the one I want to be on here. He has had 2 of his last 4 starts on the wrong trip, back to 10f today where he wins and his mark is 5lb lower for it and wears headgear for the first time.
The dangers are OUT ON FRIDAY at 66/1 (well handicapped) and BHEAN SAIBHRE at 10/1 (back quickly).
Non-runners: Chain Of Destiny.
Epsom
GIVE HAND at 7/2, Harry Charlton and Lewis Edmunds, is the one I would side with. He drops in grade after running 3rd in a Class 3, beaten 1.25L, drops to Class 4, was staying on at the finish last time and comes from a yard in good heart at 23%.
The dangers are ROGUE IMPERIAL at 13/2 (won last time) and TELEGRAPHIC at 15/2 (went close off this mark).
Non-runners: Foscarini.
AL WATHBA at 11/4, Charlie Appleby and Billy Loughnane, is the one I would side with. He races off a mark 2lb below the 91 it won off and comes from a yard in good heart at 61%.
The one worry is weakened last time.
BINCIMBAL rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won its last two off 73 and runs off 81 — up 8lb.
MAESTRO DEL MAR at 9/2, Ismail Mohammed & Jose Santos and Billy Loughnane, is the one I would side with. He was placed on its only start on this ground and has a telling booking — upgrade from a 6% rider to 16%.
The dangers are BLUE NOON at 13/8 (went close off this mark) and ROWLF at 7/2 (from a yard in form).
FOX AVATAR at 11/2, Roger Varian and Brendan Powell, is the one I keep coming back to. He went close off this sort of rating, beaten 1.75L off 81 on 31 July 2025 and was staying on at the finish last time.
The dangers are GORDON GREY at 10/1 (well handicapped) and TARITINO at 10/1 (went close off this mark).
CARNIVAL DAY at 9/2, Jim Boyle and Pat Cosgrave, looks the pick of these. He won by 4 lengths and was raised only 2lb for it, leaving 4lb in hand and has already won around this track.
The dangers are ECHALAR at 11/2 (went close off this mark) and RAJEKO at 25/1.
PLAY ME at 14/1, Jim Boyle with Donagh Murphy taking off 5lb, is the one I would side with. He has a course win to his name and was staying on at the finish last time.
CROWN OFFICE rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — every win (1) has come on soft or heavy — and today is good.
The dangers are DR STRANGELOVE at 8/1 (well handicapped) and JUNGLE RULER at 10/1 (went close off this mark).
VELVET RHYTHM at 3/1, Charlie Johnston and Rowan Scott, is the one I keep coming back to. He ran a big race off much the same mark, beaten 1.5L off 75 on 18 September and was staying on at the finish last time.
The dangers are SILVER TRUMPET at 9/2 (went close off this mark) and WRECK IT RYLEY at 16/1 (went close off this mark).
Ffos Las
SUB THIRTEEN at 2/1, Jeremy Scott and Callum Hutchinson, is the bet, and this is the profile the whole thing is built around. He races off a mark 6lb below the 59 it won from back in October 2025 and drops in grade after running 3rd in a Class 2, beaten 2.75L, drops to Class 6.
The main danger is UP THE ANTI at 14/1 (well handicapped).
NAVAL COP at 6/1, Andrew Balding and Callum Hutchinson, is the one I make it. He drops in grade after running 3rd in a Class 3, beaten 4.5L, drops to Class 5 and gets a trip he has won over.
KNOCK THREE TIMES rates higher on our figures but is passed over on the ground — never run on soft or heavy in 6 starts — and today is heavy.
SOME NIGHTMARE at 10/3, John O'Shea and William Carson, is the one I want to be on here. He races off a mark 6lb below the 55 it won from back in August 2025 and has a course win to his name.
The dangers are CALL TIME at 6/4 (a course winner) and BAMA LAMA at 10/1 (a course winner).
QUEENIE ST CLAIR at 3/1, Nick Scholfield with Millie Wonnacott taking off 5lb, is the one I want to be on here. He has had 2 of his last 4 starts on the wrong ground and his mark is 6lb lower for it, handles the ground, with 2 wins from 11 on it and gets a trip he has won over.
The one worry is off the track a while.
CARTHUSIAN rates higher on our figures but is passed over — won last time off 71 and runs off 75 — up 4lb.
The main danger is NO ORDINARY JOE at 8/1.
Little to separate them on form because most are unexposed, so it comes down to the yard and the booking.
TIME GLORY gets the vote at 14/1 for Bernard Llewellyn, ridden by David Probert. Bernard Llewellyn is running at 20% over the past fortnight.
The dangers are SILENT FORCE at 4/6 and GHOST RAIDER at 2/1.
Non-runners: Romanza.
SCARFO at 13/2, Bernard Llewellyn with Charlie Tucker taking off 7lb, makes most appeal. He was staying on at the finish last time and comes from a yard in good heart at 20%.
The dangers are HOMELAND at 7/2 (a course winner) and ROSEMARY'S ROSE at 4/1 (went close off this mark).
KING OF THE DANCE at 5/1, Bernard Llewellyn and David Probert, is the one I would be with. He won last time out and has a course win to his name.
The dangers are KALEIDOSCOPE EYES at 13/2 (a course winner) and REVICH at 14/1 (on a falling mark).
WELLWHATSHAPPENIN at 5/4, David Flood and Miss Louise Chance, is the one I would side with. He races off a mark 3lb below the 54 it won from back in October 2025 and was staying on at the finish last time.